2022 Senate · GA
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group · fieldwork ended 2022-11-06 (2 days before the election) · 690 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 59% · Republican 41%
D+18.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.45% · Republican 48.49%
D+1.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 59 − 41 = 18.00
- Actual margin = 49.445 − 48.488 = 0.957
- Signed miss = 18.00 − (0.957) = 17.043
- Absolute miss = |17.043| = 17.043
The poll overstated the Democrat by 17.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81780, race ID 8925 (538 database).