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2022 Senate · PA

The Political Matrix/The Listener Group · fieldwork ended 2022-11-06 (2 days before the election) · 800 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 47%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.25% · Republican 46.34%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 47 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.248 − 46.335 = 4.913
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (4.913) = 1.087
  4. Absolute miss = |1.087| = 1.087

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81779, race ID 8945 (538 database).