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2022 Senate · GA

Landmark Communications · fieldwork ended 2022-12-04 (2 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 52.2% · Republican 46.7%

D+5.5

The certified result

Democrat 51.40% · Republican 48.60%

D+2.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52.2 − 46.7 = 5.50
  2. Actual margin = 51.403 − 48.597 = 2.806
  3. Signed miss = 5.50 − (2.806) = 2.694
  4. Absolute miss = |2.694| = 2.694

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81764, race ID 9552 (538 database).