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2022 Senate · GA

Patriot Polling · fieldwork ended 2022-12-01 (5 days before the election) · 818 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48.7% · Republican 47%

D+1.7

The certified result

Democrat 51.40% · Republican 48.60%

D+2.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.7 − 47 = 1.70
  2. Actual margin = 51.403 − 48.597 = 2.806
  3. Signed miss = 1.70 − (2.806) = -1.106
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.106| = 1.106

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81754, race ID 9552 (538 database).