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2022 Senate · OH

Targoz Market Research · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 505 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 52%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.92% · Republican 53.03%

R+6.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 52 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.923 − 53.035 = -6.112
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-6.112) = -0.888
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.888| = 0.888

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81628, race ID 8942 (538 database).