2022 Governor · PA
Targoz Market Research · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 631 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 46%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 56.49% · Republican 41.72%
D+14.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 46 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 56.486 − 41.715 = 14.771
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (14.771) = -8.771
- Absolute miss = |-8.771| = 8.771
The poll overstated the Republican by 8.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81627, race ID 8979 (538 database).