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2022 Senate · PA

Targoz Market Research · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 631 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 51%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.25% · Republican 46.34%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 51 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.248 − 46.335 = 4.913
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (4.913) = -9.913
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.913| = 9.913

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81627, race ID 8945 (538 database).