Skip to content

2022 Senate · AZ

Targoz Market Research · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 560 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 47%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.40% · Republican 46.51%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 47 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.395 − 46.507 = 4.888
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (4.888) = -1.887
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.887| = 1.887

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81626, race ID 8919 (538 database).