Skip to content

2022 Governor · GA

Targoz Market Research · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 579 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 56%

R+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.88% · Republican 53.41%

R+7.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 56 = -14.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.876 − 53.411 = -7.535
  3. Signed miss = -14.00 − (-7.535) = -6.465
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.465| = 6.465

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81625, race ID 8960 (538 database).