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2022 Senate · GA

Targoz Market Research · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 579 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 49%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.45% · Republican 48.49%

D+1.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 49 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.445 − 48.488 = 0.957
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (0.957) = -2.957
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.957| = 2.957

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81625, race ID 8925 (538 database).