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2022 Senate · PA

Patriot Polling · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 846 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46.1% · Republican 49.4%

R+3.3

The certified result

Democrat 51.25% · Republican 46.34%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.1 − 49.4 = -3.30
  2. Actual margin = 51.248 − 46.335 = 4.913
  3. Signed miss = -3.30 − (4.913) = -8.213
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.213| = 8.213

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81617, race ID 8945 (538 database).