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2022 Senate · MO

Civiqs · fieldwork ended 2022-11-06 (2 days before the election) · 746 respondents · Online Panel/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 55%

R+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.18% · Republican 55.43%

R+13.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 55 = -15.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.177 − 55.432 = -13.255
  3. Signed miss = -15.00 − (-13.255) = -1.745
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.745| = 1.745

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81607, race ID 8936 (538 database).