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2022 Senate · OH

Civiqs · fieldwork ended 2022-11-06 (2 days before the election) · 716 respondents · Online Panel/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 51%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.92% · Republican 53.03%

R+6.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 51 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.923 − 53.035 = -6.112
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-6.112) = 1.112
  4. Absolute miss = |1.112| = 1.112

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81605, race ID 8942 (538 database).