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2022 Governor · WI

Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2022-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 50%

even

The certified result

Democrat 51.15% · Republican 47.75%

D+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 50 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.149 − 47.752 = 3.397
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (3.397) = -3.397
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.397| = 3.397

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.4 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81590, race ID 8986 (538 database).