2022 Senate · WI
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2022-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 53%
R+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.41% · Republican 50.41%
R+1.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 53 = -6.00
- Actual margin = 49.405 − 50.413 = -1.008
- Signed miss = -6.00 − (-1.008) = -4.993
- Absolute miss = |-4.993| = 4.993
The poll overstated the Republican by 5.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81590, race ID 8951 (538 database).