2022 Governor · PA
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2022-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 55% · Republican 43%
D+12.0
The certified result
Democrat 56.49% · Republican 41.72%
D+14.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 55 − 43 = 12.00
- Actual margin = 56.486 − 41.715 = 14.771
- Signed miss = 12.00 − (14.771) = -2.771
- Absolute miss = |-2.771| = 2.771
The poll overstated the Republican by 2.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81589, race ID 8979 (538 database).