2022 Governor · OH
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2022-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 39% · Republican 61%
R+22.0
The certified result
Democrat 37.38% · Republican 62.41%
R+25.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 39 − 61 = -22.00
- Actual margin = 37.377 − 62.406 = -25.029
- Signed miss = -22.00 − (-25.029) = 3.029
- Absolute miss = |3.029| = 3.029
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81588, race ID 8976 (538 database).