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2022 Senate · OH

Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2022-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 54%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.92% · Republican 53.03%

R+6.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 54 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.923 − 53.035 = -6.112
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-6.112) = -1.888
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.888| = 1.888

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81588, race ID 8942 (538 database).