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2022 Senate · NV

Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2022-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 49%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.81% · Republican 48.04%

D+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 49 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.814 − 48.037 = 0.777
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (0.777) = -1.777
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.777| = 1.777

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81586, race ID 8937 (538 database).