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2022 Senate · GA

Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2022-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 49%

even

The certified result

Democrat 49.45% · Republican 48.49%

D+1.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 49 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.445 − 48.488 = 0.957
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (0.957) = -0.957
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.957| = 0.957

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.0 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81584, race ID 8925 (538 database).