2022 Senate · CA
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2022-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 37%
D+16.0
The certified result
Democrat 61.06% · Republican 38.94%
D+22.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 37 = 16.00
- Actual margin = 61.065 − 38.935 = 22.130
- Signed miss = 16.00 − (22.130) = -6.129
- Absolute miss = |-6.129| = 6.129
The poll overstated the Republican by 6.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81582, race ID 8921 (538 database).