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2022 Senate · GA

Landmark Communications · fieldwork ended 2022-11-06 (2 days before the election) · 1,214 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46.4% · Republican 46.8%

R+0.4

The certified result

Democrat 49.45% · Republican 48.49%

D+1.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.4 − 46.8 = -0.40
  2. Actual margin = 49.445 − 48.488 = 0.957
  3. Signed miss = -0.40 − (0.957) = -1.357
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.357| = 1.357

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81579, race ID 8925 (538 database).