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2022 House · NH-1

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,043 respondents · Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 49%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.00% · Republican 45.89%

D+8.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 49 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.004 − 45.886 = 8.118
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (8.118) = -7.118
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.118| = 7.118

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81569, race ID 9237 (538 database).