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2022 Governor · NH

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 2,077 respondents · Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 55%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.47% · Republican 56.98%

R+15.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 55 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.472 − 56.985 = -15.513
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-15.513) = 3.513
  4. Absolute miss = |3.513| = 3.513

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81569, race ID 8973 (538 database).