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2022 Senate · NH

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 2,077 respondents · Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 48%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.49% · Republican 44.44%

D+9.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 48 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.495 − 44.435 = 9.060
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (9.060) = -7.061
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.061| = 7.061

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81569, race ID 8938 (538 database).