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2022 Governor · NH

Wick · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 725 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 42.5% · Republican 53.1%

R+10.6

The certified result

Democrat 41.47% · Republican 56.98%

R+15.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42.5 − 53.1 = -10.60
  2. Actual margin = 41.472 − 56.985 = -15.513
  3. Signed miss = -10.60 − (-15.513) = 4.913
  4. Absolute miss = |4.913| = 4.913

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81568, race ID 8973 (538 database).