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2022 Senate · NH

Wick · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 725 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 48.3% · Republican 48.4%

R+0.1

The certified result

Democrat 53.49% · Republican 44.44%

D+9.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.3 − 48.4 = -0.10
  2. Actual margin = 53.495 − 44.435 = 9.060
  3. Signed miss = -0.10 − (9.060) = -9.161
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.161| = 9.161

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81568, race ID 8938 (538 database).