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2022 Governor · OR

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 975 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 40.5%

D+5.5

The certified result

Democrat 46.96% · Republican 43.54%

D+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 40.5 = 5.50
  2. Actual margin = 46.960 − 43.543 = 3.417
  3. Signed miss = 5.50 − (3.417) = 2.083
  4. Absolute miss = |2.083| = 2.083

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81544, race ID 8978 (538 database).