2022 Governor · MN
St. Cloud State University · fieldwork ended 2022-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 219 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 31%
D+21.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.27% · Republican 44.61%
D+7.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 31 = 21.00
- Actual margin = 52.271 − 44.607 = 7.664
- Signed miss = 21.00 − (7.664) = 13.336
- Absolute miss = |13.336| = 13.336
The poll overstated the Democrat by 13.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81538, race ID 8970 (538 database).