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2022 Governor · CA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2022-10-19 (20 days before the election) · 860 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 37%

D+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 59.18% · Republican 40.82%

D+18.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 37 = 19.00
  2. Actual margin = 59.179 − 40.821 = 18.358
  3. Signed miss = 19.00 − (18.358) = 0.641
  4. Absolute miss = |0.641| = 0.641

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81533, race ID 8956 (538 database).