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2022 Governor · FL

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2022-10-26 (13 days before the election) · 1,117 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 53%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.97% · Republican 59.37%

R+19.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 53 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.971 − 59.374 = -19.403
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-19.403) = 9.403
  4. Absolute miss = |9.403| = 9.403

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81530, race ID 8959 (538 database).