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2022 Governor · AZ

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 46.7% · Republican 50.2%

R+3.5

The certified result

Democrat 50.32% · Republican 49.65%

D+0.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.7 − 50.2 = -3.50
  2. Actual margin = 50.318 − 49.650 = 0.668
  3. Signed miss = -3.50 − (0.668) = -4.169
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.169| = 4.169

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81521, race ID 8954 (538 database).