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2022 Governor · OH

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2022-11-02 (6 days before the election) · 1,498 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 36.9% · Republican 55.8%

R+18.9

The certified result

Democrat 37.38% · Republican 62.41%

R+25.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36.9 − 55.8 = -18.90
  2. Actual margin = 37.377 − 62.406 = -25.029
  3. Signed miss = -18.90 − (-25.029) = 6.129
  4. Absolute miss = |6.129| = 6.129

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81520, race ID 8976 (538 database).