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2022 Senate · OH

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2022-11-02 (6 days before the election) · 1,498 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 43.1% · Republican 49.3%

R+6.2

The certified result

Democrat 46.92% · Republican 53.03%

R+6.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.1 − 49.3 = -6.20
  2. Actual margin = 46.923 − 53.035 = -6.112
  3. Signed miss = -6.20 − (-6.112) = -0.088
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.088| = 0.088

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81520, race ID 8942 (538 database).