Skip to content

2022 Governor · NH

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 850 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 37.3% · Republican 58.1%

R+20.8

The certified result

Democrat 41.47% · Republican 56.98%

R+15.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37.3 − 58.1 = -20.80
  2. Actual margin = 41.472 − 56.985 = -15.513
  3. Signed miss = -20.80 − (-15.513) = -5.287
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.287| = 5.287

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81519, race ID 8973 (538 database).