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2022 Senate · NH

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 850 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 50.2% · Republican 45.7%

D+4.5

The certified result

Democrat 53.49% · Republican 44.44%

D+9.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.2 − 45.7 = 4.50
  2. Actual margin = 53.495 − 44.435 = 9.060
  3. Signed miss = 4.50 − (9.060) = -4.561
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.561| = 4.561

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81519, race ID 8938 (538 database).