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2022 House · ME-2

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2022-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 544 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 40%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.05% · Republican 46.95%

D+6.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 40 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.051 − 46.949 = 6.102
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (6.102) = -3.102
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.102| = 3.102

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81517, race ID 9177 (538 database).