Skip to content

2022 Governor · ME

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2022-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 1,116 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 43%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.69% · Republican 42.45%

D+13.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 43 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.692 − 42.449 = 13.243
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (13.243) = -7.243
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.243| = 7.243

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81517, race ID 8966 (538 database).