2022 House · NY-19
Siena College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-29 (10 days before the election) · 455 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 43%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 43.25% · Republican 45.19%
R+1.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 43 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 43.250 − 45.185 = -1.935
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (-1.935) = 6.935
- Absolute miss = |6.935| = 6.935
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.9 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81514, race ID 9272 (538 database).