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2022 Governor · GA

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2022-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 1,168 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel/Text

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 51%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.88% · Republican 53.41%

R+7.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 51 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.876 − 53.411 = -7.535
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-7.535) = 1.535
  4. Absolute miss = |1.535| = 1.535

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81509, race ID 8960 (538 database).