2022 Governor · PA
Marist College · fieldwork ended 2022-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 1,152 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel/Text
The poll said
Democrat 54% · Republican 39%
D+15.0
The certified result
Democrat 56.49% · Republican 41.72%
D+14.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 54 − 39 = 15.00
- Actual margin = 56.486 − 41.715 = 14.771
- Signed miss = 15.00 − (14.771) = 0.229
- Absolute miss = |0.229| = 0.229
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81507, race ID 8979 (538 database).