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2022 House · MI-7

Mitchell Research & Communications · fieldwork ended 2022-11-02 (6 days before the election) · 402 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 47.5% · Republican 48.4%

R+0.9

The certified result

Democrat 51.73% · Republican 46.32%

D+5.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.5 − 48.4 = -0.90
  2. Actual margin = 51.732 − 46.316 = 5.416
  3. Signed miss = -0.90 − (5.416) = -6.316
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.316| = 6.316

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81500, race ID 9201 (538 database).