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2022 Governor · GA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2022-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 1,171 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 52%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.88% · Republican 53.41%

R+7.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 52 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.876 − 53.411 = -7.535
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-7.535) = 0.535
  4. Absolute miss = |0.535| = 0.535

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81495, race ID 8960 (538 database).