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2022 Governor · GA

Remington Research Group · fieldwork ended 2022-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 1,150 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 55%

R+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.88% · Republican 53.41%

R+7.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 55 = -14.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.876 − 53.411 = -7.535
  3. Signed miss = -14.00 − (-7.535) = -6.465
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.465| = 6.465

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81494, race ID 8960 (538 database).