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2022 Senate · NC

Remington Research Group · fieldwork ended 2022-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 1,140 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 50%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.27% · Republican 50.50%

R+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 50 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.273 − 50.499 = -3.226
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-3.226) = -3.774
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.774| = 3.774

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81491, race ID 8940 (538 database).