Skip to content

2022 Senate · NH

University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion · fieldwork ended 2022-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 41%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.49% · Republican 44.44%

D+9.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 41 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.495 − 44.435 = 9.060
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (9.060) = 0.939
  4. Absolute miss = |0.939| = 0.939

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81486, race ID 8938 (538 database).