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2022 Governor · MI

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 900 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 50.9% · Republican 45.8%

D+5.1

The certified result

Democrat 54.47% · Republican 43.94%

D+10.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.9 − 45.8 = 5.10
  2. Actual margin = 54.472 − 43.941 = 10.531
  3. Signed miss = 5.10 − (10.531) = -5.431
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.431| = 5.431

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81471, race ID 8969 (538 database).