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2022 Senate · PA

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 47.3% · Republican 48.4%

R+1.1

The certified result

Democrat 51.25% · Republican 46.34%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.3 − 48.4 = -1.10
  2. Actual margin = 51.248 − 46.335 = 4.913
  3. Signed miss = -1.10 − (4.913) = -6.013
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.013| = 6.013

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81468, race ID 8945 (538 database).