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2022 Senate · PA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2022-10-19 (20 days before the election) · 850 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48.1% · Republican 42.4%

D+5.7

The certified result

Democrat 51.25% · Republican 46.34%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.1 − 42.4 = 5.70
  2. Actual margin = 51.248 − 46.335 = 4.913
  3. Signed miss = 5.70 − (4.913) = 0.787
  4. Absolute miss = |0.787| = 0.787

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81465, race ID 8945 (538 database).