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2022 Governor · PA

Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. · fieldwork ended 2022-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 700 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 51.7% · Republican 38.1%

D+13.6

The certified result

Democrat 56.49% · Republican 41.72%

D+14.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.7 − 38.1 = 13.60
  2. Actual margin = 56.486 − 41.715 = 14.771
  3. Signed miss = 13.60 − (14.771) = -1.171
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.171| = 1.171

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81457, race ID 8979 (538 database).